Russia & The Black Swan Theory | Perspective

perspective

“Engage people with what they expect; it is what they are able to discern and confirms their projections. It settles them into predicable patterns of response, occupying their minds while you wait for the extraordinary moment – that which they cannot anticipate.” ~ Sun Tzu, The Art of War

Trump’s news this week of steep tariffs on steel and aluminum blindsided our allies, and Americans as well….particularly the GOP leadership. Oh, and Trump’s economic adviser Gary Cohn too, who in light of Trump signing the tariff proclamation, has resigned.

Trump’s extremely flawed notion that tariffs are a winning solution for the 21st Century American economy – especially following the steep corporate tax cuts in December which enrich steel and aluminum companies by 14% – seems flat out delusional. In fact, so delusional that it begs to question what the real motivation is behind this destructive policy.

History has shown us over and over again that Trade Wars lead to World Wars. Thus, who would benefit from such a ruinous course?

An arch enemy, of course…

Russia!

When we factor in the timing of Trump’s steel and aluminum tariffs, Thursday March 8, 2018, which happens to be within days, possibly hours of Trump meeting with Emmet T. Flood, President Bill Clinton’s impeachment attorney, it’s abundantly clear that the tariff move was reactionary.

Or was it so much more than that?

Trump’s meeting with impeachment attorney Flood, was on the heels of news breaking about Trump ally, George Nader, who has close ties to Russia through the United Emirates, agreed to be a cooperating witness against Trump. Nader gave testimony to a grand jury for Mueller’s Russia Collusion Special Investigation this past week. The timing of Nader’s testimony was apparently particularly worrisome for Trump in light of the fact that Kushner recently had his security clearance down-graded. Hope Hicks had just announced that she’d be departing the White House. Rob Porter resigned on February 7, 2018. So Trump had to find a way to manage the fallout of the scathing news releases about Nader’s testimony, without his supportive inner circle, which this week looked more like an inner dot than a team of skilled advisors. (Is 32 year old Stephen Miller the only one left?)

Did I forget to mention Stormy Daniels? Yes, Stormy Daniels was also drowning the news cycle. By the middle of the week, Wednesday March 7, 201, her attorney had filed a lawsuit claiming that the nondisclosure agreement was invalid because Trump didn’t sign it.

So again, by the end of this week of extreme mayhem, Trump meets with impeachment attorney Flood, then springs the shocking announcement about trade tariffs which the majority of experts agree will result in a dark and damaging Trade War, that will wreak havoc across the global economy. One economist predicted the stock market will drop 40% within the next 18-24 months, millions will lose jobs.

It’s therefor time to be proactive and get out in front of this dire crisis.

I’m left to conclude that:

  • Yes, Trump did collude with Russia and Mueller will be able to prove it (Mueller probably already is able to prove it; it’s likely that much of the testimony and evidence is sealed)
  • When Russia and Trump began colluding back in 2013, it appears Russia crafted an Exit Strategy (in case the plot was ever uncovered and could be proven… setting up a back channel between Trump and Russia during the pre-inauguration Seychelles meeting is now provable and appears to be the tip of the iceberg)
  • Russia is America’s arch enemy, and any potential Exit Strategy is going to be painful. Sure there’s many weapons that could harms us, but a true warmonger like Putin would likely have several creative aggressive alternatives up his sleeve. Like how about economic ruin?
  • Interestingly, that’s what all the experts were predicting this week…economic  ruin from steel and aluminum tariffs.
  • Seems like a pretty sound Scorched Earth military strategy for an aggressor like Putin and his puppet, Donald J. Trump.

By the way, following 9/11, Congress immediately established the 9/11 Commission, directed by former NJ Governor Thomas Kean, to investigate how our intelligence community missed the red flags with the 9/11 terrorists hiding in plain site. After nearly two years, the Commission concluded that the fault lay with our “failure at imagination.” Our inability to imagine or predict the possibilities.

Which now brings me to The Black Swan Theory...

Quoting from Wikipedia: “The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:

  1. The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology.
  2. The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities).
  3. The psychological biases that blind people, both individually and collectively, to uncertainty and to a rare event’s massive role in historical affairs.

Thus, I’d like to imagine the following possibility…that Trump did collude with Russia. That warmonger Putin masterminded a horribly devastating Exit Strategy that would bring catastrophic economic ruin to America. That this was woven into the fabric of the Trump campaign and presidency years ago, and became part of Trump’s campaign nucleus. And that Putin’s grand scheme for thwarting the potential consequences when the collusion became provable, and Trump’s ouster certain, was that Trump would set the Exit Strategy in motion by kicking off the Trade War.

I’m confident there’s an army of intelligence agents who are busy projecting and imagining. But in light of all this stunning news the past four weeks, and with midterm elections around the corner, the American public, particularly the GOP, has to take off its blinders and “imagine” the possibilities as well. Senator Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and Speaker Ryan, it’s time move into high gear to block this Trade War.

 

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Russia Investigation | Perspective

BlogNmbrsRUSSIA INVESTIGATION

On December 1, 2017 Mike Flynn pleaded guilty to lying to the FBI about conversations he had with Russian diplomat Sergey Kislyak following Trump’s election. This significant event in Robert Mueller’s investigation timeline indicates the investigation is intensifying and that other indictments are imminent, and/or may already exist but are sealed. Flynn has agreed to be a cooperating witness in the Trump/Russia collusion investigation signaling he has proven to Mueller’s team his information can take down a big fish, and that there was/is Trump/Russian collusion.

The potential big fish that may now be in the crosshairs are: son Donald Trump Jr, son-in-law Jared Kushner, daughter Ivanka Trump, Jeff Sessions and more.

Numerous GOP leaders have stated that Trump asked them to end the Trump/Russia collusion Investigation dating back to the beginning of the year.

In light of the significant success of the Mueller investigation, and the investigation’s forward momentum, the GOP Trump loyalists appear to have moved aggressively to thwart Mueller’s progress, and to vigorously discredit Mueller and his team.

This boiling point will stretch on for a painfully long period of time. Expect a tumultuous beginning to the new year. It seems GOP loyalists will attempt an all-out assault on the Mueller investigation using an octopus strategy: endless trolls commenting on news articles & posting on social media; undercutting the investigators on Mueller’s team; eroding confidence in Mueller; placing judges in key courts who can impede the investigation, some of which aren’t qualified to be judges; blocking discovery; creating attention grabbing and time-consuming diversions; firing Mueller; starting World War III.

In the meantime, if interested in learning more about how these investigations work, check out The Assets on Netflix. This stunning series about CIA traitor Aldrich Ames who sold U.S. secrets to Russian during the cold war, and was responsible for the deaths of 10 “assets,” is an eye-opener into how intricate a small, simple “find the mole” investigation is, how many hoops investigators have to jump through, how laborious it is to unearth the right kind of evidence to win in court, and how long investigations can take (the Ames investigation took 7 years). Trump/Russia collusion is exponentially more complicated.

Be prepared for a bumpy ride. But recognize the mission of GOP Trump loyalists when you read the headlines, and remember the vast majority of U.S. citizens are incredibly thankful for the handwork and dedication of Mueller and his team. They’re on a treacherous uphill battle on the “right side of history,” rising to the intense challenge they’ve been saddled with in pursuit of preserving our democracy and its coveted ideals.

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STATES

Our Constitution contains numerous checks & balances to protect U.S. citizens from the abuse of power. One of the most potent checks on an over-reaching federal government is state authority. There have been a significant number of states who’ve stepped-up to lead the way in pushing-back against Trump’s unilateral and divisive Executive Orders and decisions that are in sharp conflict with American principles.

Typically when a president is elected by the Electoral College rather than the majority vote, an attempt to bridge the political divide and build bipartisan support is made. But this hasn’t happened with the Trump administration. Keep your eyes on states like New York, Virginia, Connecticut, New Jersey, Maryland, California, Oregon, Washington, Hawaii and more who’ve taken action against Trump and his controversial policies. New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman is leading the way in opposition. His most recent legal action is that of suing the FCC over it’s move to end Net Neutrality.

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ENVIRONMENT

Paradoxically, corporations do NOT feel the need to protect American waterways, air and soil unless regulated. The vast majority of corporations govern themselves by their desire to make money no matter what the impact on the environment and human health. Toxins damage human DNA, creating permanent health effects that will be passed on forever without any recourse for the injured parties.

The best way to protect ourselves is lobby our STATE legislators. Most states have environmental nonprofits. Some are national nonprofits with local chapters. Join an organization to strengthen state lobbying efforts. EPA Scott Pruitt has been tasked to end environmental protection, so there’s no hope on this front. Sate legislators are the solution.

States can establish their own environmental protection standards when determining if drinking water is safe. The EPA may set a standard of 70 parts per trillion, but a state like New Jersey has a much more rigorous standard of 14 parts per trillion. Recently in North Carolina, Duke researchers found that drinking water in Carey, NC has PFOS and PFOA chemicals at 27 parts per trillion. Below EPA standards, but above some state standards, and a big increase from a previous reading of 5.6 parts per trillion. It’s understandable why residents of Carey are alarmed. The EPA is NOT going to help protect them. Connecting with state legislators to adjust the state environmental standards to align with those states that have the strongest protection policies is the path forward in strengthening health safety.

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HEALTH

The most effective way to stay heathy and minimize healthcare costs is build a strong immune system. A strong immune system doesn’t need to cost very much. It’s about having disciplined daily habits:

    • at least 7 hours of sleep each night , eye shields provide deeper sleep which restores the immune system much faster and easier
    • Vigorous walking each day, ideally 8,000 steps
    • 1 clove of garlic every morning: just press into an inch of water in 8 oz mug, microwave for 35 seconds, add a splash of cold water, chug. Chase with favorite morning beverage. It tastes terrible, but you drink it so fast you won’t care. Garlic traces back 3,000 years. Used by ancient Egyptians to stay healthy and strong while building the pyramids.

 

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